Monday, October 10, 2011

Using the Greenhouse Effect Triangles

Oops Drawing thanks to NASA web site.

Steven Mosher is a smart guy. He calculates that a doubling of CO2 would equal 1.5 degrees of warming. Most people estimate 1.2 degrees for a doubling. The version of the Kimoto equation estimates 0.8 degrees warming.

Using the triangles, the surface warming estimated by the equation is 0.8 which would cause 1.5 degrees warming at the top of the red triangle. For the 1.2 estimate, it depends where that warming actually takes place. If the 1.2 is warming at the top of the triangle it produces 0.86 warming at the surface. If that 1.2 is warming at the surface, it produces 1.7 degrees warming at the top of the triangle. What happens depends on where it happens.

For simplicity, just use 1.4 and 0.7, the ratio of the flux and the direction of the points. Surface times 1.4 ~ top, top times 0.7 ~ surface. Most of the differences in estimates is the choice of the frame of reference.

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