Friday, October 7, 2011

Chaos Mathematical Description of the Earth System?

I am really out of my depth with chaos mathematics. My description of the Earth system will suffer because of my lack of familiarity with the proper terminology, so try to bear with me.

As I see it, the Earth climate system has two strange attractors, glacial and interglacial which I have previously discussed in the Coming Ice Age posts. With the potential solution to the Kimoto Equation, my description of the attractors can be made a little clearer.

Of the two, the interglacial attractor is slightly stronger, so the probability cloud is tighter. The glacial attractor is slightly weaker so it has a larger probability cloud. The separation of the two attractors is the question.

The interglacial attractor does not appear to be strong enough to cause stability, but with the addition of CO2, it is not beyond the realm of possibility.

However, the addition CO2 would change the strength of the glacial attractor, which may then be strong enough to create stability. Since CO2 is likely to shift the glacial attractor closer to the interglacial attractor, the period of oscillation between attractors would decrease. So we may have stable glacial, stable interglacial or more rapid change from glacial to interglacial. I would assume the more rapid change.

This is the best description I can give at the moment. If there are any real chaos mathematicians out there, I would appreciate any input.


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