In my last post Back to Baking Bacon Bread, the pork fat must have stimulated my brain or killed a few extra brain cells, not sure which. Anyway, in my pork fat euphoria, it appears I have located a missing 22Wm2 of heat. Because of the sensitivity of errors, it is not all that easy to find out how much heat is missing versus some just misplaced.
However, since it looks like the flux generated by the greenhouse effect is 133 and not 155, there is probably a slight error in estimating the effective emissivity of the Earth's atmosphere, the planet itself or both. That is not only likely, but probable. The question would be how much would it effect the overall estimation of the change in forcing due to a doubling of CO2? Hummm?
I am not sure how to go directly to the answer. I can start by using the 133 instead of 155 just to see what that may do.
Back to my new favorite formula, dF/dT=4F/T and the ratio Tge/(288255)=Fge/(390235), the 390, Fs(urface)235, Ftoa equals 155, but that does not include the effective emissivity of the atmosphere. Effective emissivity would be 133/155=0.85, which is much lower than typically assumed. So modifying the ratio, 0.85*(Fge)/0.85(FsFtoa), to allow for this emissivity value we have T/33=0.85Fge/133. Since we are solving for an unknown temperature change due to 2xCO2 we have, dTge=dFge*Tge/4Fge=0.85*(3.7*33)/(4*133)=0.195, so for a 3.7Wm2 change in forcing, 0.72 degree K change. That is a considerably smaller amount than the 1 estimated, a lot smaller that the 1.2 often estimated and one hellava lot less than the 1.5 estimate by some. So I think it is worth looking into a bit.
The nuts of the matter is that warming is likely over estimated by up to 15%, 85% of 3C is 2.55 Degrees, which purely by chance I am sure, agrees nicely with most of the recent estimates of sensitivity and is just about how much the models are over estimating the impact of global warming.
Could it be the MISSING HEAT?
Efficient alternate energy portable fuels are required to end our dependence on fossil fuels. Hydrogen holds the most promise in that reguard. Exploring the paths open for meeting the goal of energy independence is the object of this blog. Hopefully you will find it interesting and informative.
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 Simple Versus Too Simple
 New Blog For Easier Navigation
 Carbon Dioxide A Not so Well Mixed Gas
 Another Shot at Explaining the Atmospheric Effect
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 The Relativity Series Begins Under Cosmic Puzzles
 Atmospheric Phonons  RHC and the Greenhouse Effec...
 What the Heck is Effective Emissivity?
 SciFi and the Tropopause Heat Sink
 Could Atmospheric Conductivity Help Regulate Antar...
 The Relative Motion of Low Energy Photons in a Mi...
 What is a Pyrometer Measuring When You Aim it at t...
 I am Still Getting Flack over the Value of Down We...
 What is The 4C Thermal Boundary?
 The Mysterious Case of the Missing Heat
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 Determing How Wrong I May Be
 Relativistic Conduction of Heat
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 A Point I Missed Explaining Very Well The Tropopa...
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 Now, to Truly Prove I am a Whack Job
 IPCC Down Welling Radiation Violates the Law!
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 Back to Baking Bacon Bread
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