Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Climate Science Puzzle

Since there has been a renewed interest in Probability Puzzles, like Monty Hall, Boy Born Tuesday and the Letter Paradox. Also there has been the issue raised before the US Congress about unfalsifiable hypotheses, I decided to combine the two:

Here is the Dallas theory of Extreme Weather Events related to Anthropogenic Global Warming.

The polar regions are more susceptible to the warming due to CO2 increases due to dryer air and more space for warming (i.e. it is colder at the poles, so they can warm more). The tropical regions are less susceptible to the higher CO2 concentration since water vapor is by far the dominate GHG in this region, so proportionally, much lower warming will be evident. The impact will be a reduced temperature differential between the poles and equator, which will reduce the strength of atmospheric oscillations, there by reducing the frequency of extreme weather events in the higher latitudes.

Tropical cyclones will become more limited to lower latitudes as the polar/equatorial differential decreases. By the year 2125, blizzards will become a rare and exciting event.

Without abusing the laws of thermodynamic too much, falsify my hypothesis. The comment thing should be working now.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dallas,

This does not include shifting ocean heat or the hypothesis or how an Ice Age is formed.
Massive evaporation is the signature of an Ice Age, so where is that precipitation come from? The sun has no influence on evaporation without the help of atmospheric pressure and a whole host of other factors.

Dallas said...

Thunderstorms and hurricanes generate local pressure differences. The heat engine works between the warm surface and cold troposphere. This hypothesis considers one variable, latitudinal temperature gradient and its impact on climate.

Dallas said...

Glacial/interglacial events are assumed to be orbitally driven cycles, which is pretty well accepted. While little ice ages may be driven by solar variation, TSI change alone is not likely to be the driver. So unless you can prove that temperature difference between the poles and equator will not reduce with GHG increases, you haven't falsified the hypothesis.

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